Second-order thinking requires us to consider our actions, the immediate consequences of those actions as well as the long-term effects that are bound to arise as a result of the choices you make. The question, “and then what?” directs second-order thinking.
In a hypothetical situation where you are torn between finishing your assignment and going out with friends. When you weigh the options of staying in and finishing your paper or going out with your friends for a drink, going out would seem more gratifying. However, if you ask yourself “and then what” you would be likely to realize which of the two options might have negative consequences.
Thinking beyond the immediate outcome of a decision to the consequences is crucial in making decisions that have lasting positive effects and in ensuring that we are not destructed from our long-term objectives.
The Bayesian method is a theory-based on statistics where probabilities express the level of belief in the occurrence of an event. When this principle is applied to thoughts, it involves is a thought considering all probable outcomes and scenarios. When we add new data onto the pre-existing probabilities and update them, we create a more realistic expectation and can thus make decisions based on the expected outcomes. Constantly updating our field of probabilities means that we can create more realistic simulations of scenarios and possible outcomes. We can then use this insight to make decisions that are in alignment with the desired outcome.
We can use hypothetical scenarios to anticipate what will happen. Mental simulations aid us in predicting the probable results of our actions. By running these simulations, we can use the predictions arrived at to determine the best course of action in any given situation. We can effectively use mental simulations to not only anticipate future events but also to prepare for what will come in the future.
The Occam’s razor principle is a problem-solving principle. It eliminates improbable option and asserts that usually, the simplest explanation is often the correct one. it encourages us to focus on what works and avoid getting bogged down by complex theories. Wasting time and energy contemplating complex scenarios may be counterproductive and frustrating. Basing decisions on simpler logic and proven fact scenarios limiting the margin of error. Occam’s razor principle encourages us to trust our first instincts.
The principle of Hanlon’s razor is built around focusing thoughts on finding solutions to a problem rather than finding fault or someone to blame for the existence of the problem. When we apply this principle to our reasoning and thinking process, we do not attribute bad situations to malice but rather to a lack of knowledge. Devoting energy and time to the paranoid pursuit of people to blame for bad situations means that we do not focus on the solution.